Impact of Solar and Load Uncertainty on Distribution System Performance: A PEM-Based Probabilistic Load Flow Study Erita Astrid-Yoakim Simamora-Muhammad Dani Solihin-Eka Dodi Suryanto-Rudi Salman
Universitas Negeri Medan
Abstract
The integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems into distribution networks introduces variability due to the stochastic nature of solar irradiance and fluctuating load demand. Relying solely on deterministic power flow analysis can lead to inaccurate system assessments under such uncertain conditions. This study presents a probabilistic approach to load flow analysis using the Point Estimate Method (PEM), applied to the IEEE 33-bus radial distribution network. Uncertainty in solar irradiance and load is modeled using normal probability distributions, and PEM is utilized to generate representative scenarios for efficient evaluation. For each scenario, the backward-forward sweep method is employed to calculate voltage profiles and real power losses. The results reveal significant variations in system performance metrics, particularly in voltage regulation and network losses. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted by varying the standard deviation (σ-) of the uncertain parameters, demonstrating that higher uncertainty levels lead to increased power losses and voltage deviations. These findings underscore the importance of probabilistic methods in enhancing the accuracy of distribution network performance assessments in the presence of renewable energy sources.
Keywords: Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF)- Point Estimate Method (PEM)- Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Integration-Distribution Network Performance -Uncertainty Analysis
