Landuse Change Prediction on Super-Priority Tourism Destination in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia Titis Chris Monika Pertiwi (a), Aditya Saputra (a*)
a) Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta (UMS), 57162 Surakarta City, Central Java, Indonesia
*as105[at]ums.ac.id
Abstract
Labuan Bajo is one of the five super priority tourism destinations designated in 2019. The number of tourism infrastructure developments has increased over time. This causes landuse changes to support tourism activities. So, it is necessary to monitor landuse change in that area. This study aims to 1) analyze the landuse change of Labuan Bajo Urban Area in 2011, 2017, 2023, and predict the landuse in 2029, 2) analyze the driving variable of landuse change, and 3) analyze the suitability of landuse prediction in 2029 against the City Spatial Plan. This study was spatiotemporally analyzed with an interpretation process combined with CA Markov and binary logistic regression model. This study shows a significant increase in landuse change from 2017 to 2023 almost two-fold from 2011 to 2017. Based on the model, the most influential variable is tourist attractions. The suitability of predicted landuse in 2029 against the City Spatial Plan is 98%. The significant increase requires regular monitoring to determine the change direction and define the boundaries of landuse change following the City Spatial Plan. This study provides information on the influence of tourism development components on the phenomenon of landuse change in the Labuan Bajo Urban Area.
