Prediction of Flood Vulnerability due to Land Cover Change in 2045 in Tegal Regency, Central Java, Indonesia M F Fitrotunnisa, A A Wibowo, D Surachman
Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta,BAPPEDA-Litbang Tegal Regency
Abstract
Tegal Regency is an area with diverse topographic conditions. This condition makes Tegal Regency has varying slopes and has the potential for natural disasters, one of which is flooding. Data from BPBD Tegal Regency shows that floods that often occur are mostly caused by heavy rains. Predicting flood disasters is one way to anticipate events that will occur in the future. This research aims to analyze the prediction of flood vulnerability in 2045 from the flood vulnerability map and compare it with the 2023 data geospatially using Geographic Information Systems. In flood vulnerability research, parameters that support flood events are used, including rainfall, slope, altitude, soil type, land use, and river distance to surrounding areas. The research used descriptive quantitative method by processing secondary data derived from related institutions which then performed scoring and overlay analysis. The results of the study showed that Tegal regency in 2045 had an increase of 1.7% in very flood-prone areas, 0.59% in prone areas, and decreased 0.77% in moderately prone areas from 2023. One of the causes is the high land cover change in the increase of built-up land and the reduction of vegetation..
Keywords: Flood, Flood Vulnerability, Land Cover Change, Scoring
