Prediction of Land Cover Change in Coastal of Tegal Regency in 2031 Using MOLUSCE QGIS Method D P Puspitaningrum*, A A Wibowo*, D Surachman**
*Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta
**Bappeda-Litbang Kabupaten Tegal
Abstract
The changes that occur in an area must have an impact on the physical condition of the area, especially the condition of its land cover. The occurrence of land cover change needs to be reviewed to harmonise the condition of land cover with the RTRW policy to be in accordance with the plan. This study aims to analyse the prediction of land cover change in Tegal Regency Coastal Area in 2031 and analyse the suitability of the results of land cover prediction in 2031 with Tegal Regency RTRW. The method used in the research was stratified random sampling to determine sample points for kappa accuracy test on the images used. Simulation of land cover change predictions using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS 2.18.1. From the research results, the area of agricultural land in the 2007-2015 period experienced an increase in area of 2,120.58 hectares. Likewise with built-up land whose land area increased by 457.65 hectares. The increase also occurred in the 2015-2023 period with an additional area of agricultural land of 737.64 hectares and built-up land of 1,069.02 hectares. In the 2031 land cover prediction results, there was an increase in the area of agricultural land by 270.00 hectares and built-up land by 460.26 hectares. The results of the intersect between the 2031 land cover prediction map and the RTRW map obtained a suitable land area of 72.04% and an unsuitable one of 27.96%.
Keywords: Land Cover Change, Land Cover Prediction, RTRW
