Comparisonal Analysis of Simple Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, And Least Squares Methods on Production Forecasting of RMS-106M Type Regulator Year 2019 at PT. X Yahdi Firmansyah,jumattul koip,sartono,rahman soesilo
SEKOLAH TINGGI TEKNOLOGI MUTU MUHAMMADIYAH TANGERANG
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to calculate the forecast value using the Simple Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Least Squares Method, and calculate the error value of the forecasting method using Methods of Average Absolute Deviation (MAD, Mean Absolute Deviation), Average Squared Error (MSE, Mean Squared Error) and Average Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error). Forecasting methods used are Simple Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing (α- = 0.28) and Least Squares method. Meanwhile, to find the error value, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) methods are used. After doing the calculations, the results show that the best forecasting method is the Least Square method with MAD = 20,377.33, MSE = 518,371,324 and MAPE = 24.72%. Where the forecast value with this method is only 2 units of product greater than the actual value of demand. Furthermore, using this method, forecasting calculations will be carried out for the period November 2019 - April 2020, the results of these calculations are for November 2019 = 125,252 units, December 2019 = 130,286 units, January 2020 = 135,320 units, February 2020 = 140,354 units, March 2020 = 145,388 units and April 2020 = 7150,422 units.
