Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on the Erosion of the Kelara Watershed Aril Limbong(a), Roland Barkey(a), Anwar Umar(a), Syamsu Rijal(a), Munajat Nursaputra(a), Chairil A(a)
(a). Laboratory of Planning and Forestry Information System, Faculty of Forestry, Hasanuddin University, Makassar.
Abstract
South Sulawesi has been affected in recent years by natural disasters. One of the areas affected by the flood disaster is the Jeneponto District, which is included in the boundary of the Kelara Watershed ecosystem. Flood disasters are caused by extreme weather conditions that are part of the accumulation of climate change. Furthermore, the conditions of land use in the upper reaches of the Kelara watershed do not match its designation which causes an increase in the rate of erosion. Climate change analysis with projected precipitation from the CSIRO General Circulation Model Mk3.5 climate in the 2030s. The estimated land cover change in 2026 uses a combination of the Geographic Information System approach, remote sensing, and Markov Chain Cellular Automata method with Landsat images in 2006, 2011, and 2016. Prediction of erosion rates using the Universal Soil Loss Equation method. Annual rainfall of the 2030 has decreased due to a significant decrease in rainfall during the dry season (July, August, September, and October). However, there is an increase in rainfall during the rainy season, although the increase is not too great. This is a concern that the availability of water in the dry season will experience a growing deficit in the future. In 2006-2016, changes in land use were not significant. In the land-use projection for 2026, there will be significant changes in land use. The use of paddy fields has increased over a wider area, reaching 9% of the previous surface, while other land uses continue to follow the previous trend of reduction of the surface. The erosion prediction for 2016 is 299.13 tons/ha/year, while the erosion prediction for the year is 300.13 tons/ha/year. Even intense and very intense erosion classes will experience a reduction in the area of about 200 hectares in 2026. Based on this, the land is not a problem in the future, but an issue that must be prepared for its management is a drought when considering climate change conditions.
