Projected Traffic Performance of a National Road Segment at Politeknik Negeri Lhokseumawe (PNL), Aceh, Indonesia Khudri Yansari, Sugiarto Sugiarto, Sofyan M. Saleh, Mariana Mariana, Roudhia Rahma , Tomio Miwa
Master Program, Department of Civil Engineering, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, 23111, Indonesia
Department of Civil Engineering, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
Abstract
Evaluating traffic performance is essential for the planning and management of sustainable urban transportation systems, especially in corridors influenced by significant activity centers, such as universities. This study forecasts the performance of a national road segment situated directly in front of Politeknik Negeri Lhokseumawe (PNL), Aceh, Indonesia. Empirical data were gathered through traffic surveys conducted in 2025, which encompassed vehicle classification, volume, speed, and road geometry. The analysis employed the Degree of Saturation (DS) as the primary indicator of roadway performance, supplemented by traffic projection models utilizing historical vehicle registration and population growth data. Projections were made for a four-year period, extending to 2029. The results suggest that weekday traffic volumes will reach 2,564 pcu/h at STA 0+000, 2,612 pcu/h at STA 0+500, and 2,613 pcu/h at STA 1+000, representing a 7-8% increase compared to the baseline values in 2025. The corresponding DS values ranged from 0.65 to 0.69, categorizing the corridor under Level of Service (LOS) C. This classification indicates stable yet increasingly constrained conditions, where maneuverability remains possible but with noticeable declines in comfort and reserve capacities. The findings emphasize that the PNL corridor will remain operationally functional throughout 2029, although it is approaching critical thresholds that could lead to congestion if no interventions are implemented. This study highlights the importance of proactive management strategies, such as adaptive signal timing, traffic demand management, and public transport development, to mitigate the risks of service degradation. The outcomes provide evidence-based insights for transportation authorities, urban planners, and campus administrators to maintain mobility and safety within the Lhokseumawe urban network.
