From Collapse to Collaboration: AI, Advertising Disruption, and the Future of Media Sustainability in Emerging Economies
Alvin Alvin(1), Agatha Agatha(2), Muhamad Reyhansa(3)

(1) Kernel Future Research, Bogor, Indonesia
alvin[at]kernelfurure.com (corresponding author)*
(2) Kernel Future Research, Bogor, Indonesia
(3) Universitas Terbuka, Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

This study examines how AI-driven advertising and platform intermediation reshape value capture and editorial incentives in news ecosystems across Indonesia, Australia, and Singapore. The objective is to identify governance and capability configurations that improve media sustainability and information integrity in emerging economies. Using a qualitative comparative policy design, we synthesisse regulatory documents, industry materials, and expert insights, organize them with software-assisted coding, and construct a cross-case explanatory matrix for inference. The results show continued concentration of reach and pricing on global platforms in Indonesia, where bilingual market adaptation does not offset exposure to opaque auctions and ranking. In Australia, the News Media Bargaining Code catalyzed platform to publisher transfers estimated at about AUD 200 million, improving cash flow while leaving deal transparency and distributional fairness uncertain. In Singapore, first party data frameworks and capacity programs enhance autonomy in measurement and diversified monetization and embed ethical AI practices. Cross case synthesis indicates that outcomes improve when algorithmic transparency, data portability, calibrated value transfer, and capability building are sequenced and aligned with institutional capacity. The main implication is that no single instrument is sufficient to stabilise revenues and protect verified information. The study contributes an integrated framework that links market design, governance, and newsroom practice, and offers a practical pathway that can be adapted in Global South contexts. Future research should quantify how transfers translate into public interest reporting and pair panel exposure studies with independent audits to measure the effects of recommendation changes on trust, retention, and conversion.

Keywords: democratic resilience, digital media disruption, generative AI, media sustainability, public trust

Topic: Business Transformation in the Digital Era