Building Resilient Coffee Agroindustry Supply Chains: A Fuzzy-Based HOR Model for Risk Evaluation
Rizkiyah Isnaini 1, Imam Santoso 1* , Arif Hidayat 1, Rizky Luthfian Ramadhan Silalahi 1

1 Department of Agroindustrial Technology, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Brawijaya, Jl. Veteran No.10-11, Malang 65145, Indonesia
*Email: imamsantoso[at]ub.ac.id

Abstract

Effective risk management is essential for sustaining the performance and resilience of agro-industrial supply chains, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on smallholder participation. This study investigates risk identification and mitigation within the coffee agroindustry by focusing on three key actors: farmers, processing units, and roasteries. The research begins with a detailed mapping of operational tasks and activities performed by each actor along the supply chain. From this mapping, potential risk events are systematically identified based on their association with specific activities. The identification process revealed 24 distinct risk agents (RA) affecting various stages of the supply chain. To assess and prioritize these risks, the study employs the House of Risk (HOR) framework, integrated with fuzzy logic to address the inherent subjectivity and ambiguity in expert assessments. Risk evaluation is based on severity, occurrence, and correlation and produced an Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP) score for each agent. The fuzzy HOR analysis identified seven high-priority risk agents : Transport Issues (RA2- ARP 454.76), Weather and Climate Change (RA6- ARP 1467.50), Pest/Disease Attack (RA7- ARP 607.66), Lack of Drying Equipment (RA10- ARP 614.00), Market Fluctuation (RA12- ARP 302.00), Low Production Capacity (RA13- ARP 614.00), and Limited Workforce (RA14- ARP 463.33). For these prioritized risks, targeted mitigation strategies are proposed, including actor-specific preventive measures, improved coordination mechanisms among supply chain participants, and capacity development interventions. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of risk dynamics in the coffee agroindustry and offer practical insights for enhancing supply chain resilience, particularly within smallholder-driven production systems.

Keywords: Agroindustry resilience- Coffee supply chain- Fuzzy logic- House of risk- Risk assessment

Topic: Agro-industrial system management and regulation