Shallot Price Forecast in Traditional Markets of the Special Region of Yogyakarta
Herdiana Anggrasari1, Aura Dhamira1*, Handani Maheresmi2

1Faculty of Agriculture, UPN Veteran Yogyakarta
2Faculty of Economics and Business, UPN Veteran Yogyakarta

Abstract

This paper aimed to see the trend of shallot^s price in traditional markets in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, as well as to see its changes over time to be able to forecast future price of the commodity. The data used collected from Department of Agriculture and Food Security of the Special Region of Yogyakarta consisting of the price of shallots from five markets across the province, namely Argosari market, Bantul market, Beringharjo market, Wates market and Sleman market. Time series data was used in this paper, which is monthly data dated from April 2021 to December 2023. We used descriptive analysis method to see the trend and changes of shallot^s price in five markets in Yogyakarta Special Region while MAPE was used to see the best model for price forecasting. The result shows that the price trend of shallot tend to rise over time and the exponential smoothing becomes the best model to forecast the price of shallot in the Special Region of Yogyakarta.

Keywords: forecasting- price- shallot- trend

Topic: Social Science