Use of the Exponential Smoothing to Estimate Export Value in Next Month or Above
M. Aldi Septian(a*), Fatur Rizki(b), Ihsan Nuddin(c)

Universitas Sriwijaya, Jl. Raya Palembang - Prabumulih Km. 32 Indralaya, OI, Sumatera Selatan 30662, Indonesia
*aldiq192[at]gmail.com, faturrizky666[at]gmail.com, Ihsann19092003[at]gmail.com

Abstract

Export is an activity that supports the economy of a region, this export activity also experiences ups and downs in the revenue achieved. Through the data on the rise and fall of this income we can estimate the next value, one of the methods we will use is the Exponential Smoothing Method. This research also uses the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). The data used is the value of South Sumatra Exports for the period January 2021 to July 2023. This method has several parameters to produce a minimum error. In this experiment, the error test method is used to obtain the weighting parameters. &#945- parameter is the evaluation value for the SES method parameters. The method used in this research is the Exponential Smoothing, this method is used to find parameters that minimise the MAP weighting function. The analysis in this research is assisted by using additional applications, namely MATLAB, which is useful for facilitating the analysis of the calculation process. Exponential Smoothing analysis is the best analysis that can be used to estimate the value of the next few periods, this is because the Exponential Smoothing Method contains the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MSE (Mean Squared Error) has a minimum MAPE value so that we will be able to estimate the value of South Sumatra exports 1 or above periods ahead using the minimum MAPE parameter.

Keywords: Export, Exponential Smoothing, Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Error

Topic: Mathematics and Its Applications