Scheduling Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistic Method on a Building Construction Project
Syadza Nabila Yusna (a*), Agus Suharyanto (a), Indradi Wijatmiko (a)

a) Faculty of Engineering, University of Brawijaya, Jalan Veteran, Malang 65145, Indonesia
*syadzanabila[at]student.ub.ac.id

Abstract

In the construction of an office building in Indonesia, a delay occurred in the first-floor concrete work, the project was planned to be completed in 161 days but in reality, it took 168 days to complete. This study raises the issues by doing a scheduling analysis by comparing the Monte Carlo Simulation and the Statistic method. Comparison between these methods is carried out to determine the project duration scheduling probability level from each method. To support this study, the required data are the project Time Schedule and the interview data from respondents who are directly related to the office building construction project. Monte Carlo Simulation analysis shows that to get a 100% probability level the duration can only be accelerated by two days, from 168 days to 166 days, while the Statistic method analysis shows that to get a 99,99% probability level the duration can only be accelerated by 4,2 days, from 168 days to 163,8 days. From the results above, it can be concluded that the Monte Carlo Simulation has a more accurate calculation than the Statistic Method because the result from the Monte Carlo Simulation is 166 days with a 100% probability level. It is close to the project realization duration which is 168 days.

Keywords: Schedule- Monte Carlo Simulation- Project Evaluation Review Method- Statistic Method- Probability

Topic: Civil Engineering