Spatial Modeling For Prediction Agricultural Land Use Change in Jampang Kulon, Sukabumi Regency Audry Difanty, S. Supriatna
Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia.
Abstract
Indonesia is a developing country with high population growth. In terms of urbanization, a large amount of agricultural land has been transformed into an urban area that can directly lead to LULC (land use-land cover) changes. Understanding and accessing LULC changes mainly used simulation models like the Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. This model effectively combines the advantages of long-term predictions and can simulate land use change. This study aims to analyze and predict the future scenarios of LULC (2010-2031) in the Jampang Kulon Sub District using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model by considering the physical and socio-economic drivers of LULC dynamics. The study revealed that agricultural land decreased by 17% from 2020 to 2031. Meanwhile, the neighborhood area will be increased by 41% from 2020 to 2031. The growth of neighborhood areas with a crowded pattern is in the northern and center part of Jampang Kulon Sub District. The CA-Markov model used in predicting LULC produced a kappa value of 0,87. This study can provide suggestions and a basis for urban development planning in Jampang Kulon Sub District Sukabumi Regency.
