Prediction of Land Change for Oil Palm Plantations in Penajam Subdistrict, Penajam Paser Utara Regency, East Kalimantan Province
Afifah Maulidya (a), Astrid Damayanti (a*), Tito Latif Indra (b), Muhammad Dimyati (b)

a) Bachelor Program of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Depok City, Indonesia
*astrid.damayanti[at]sci.ui.ac.id
b) Departement of Geography, Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Science, Universitas Indonesia, Depok City, Indonesia

Abstract

Penajam Subdistrict is the center of government and economy of the North Penajam Paser Regency. It has an area of oil palm plantations that continues to grow every year. The massive growth of oil palm plantations in recent years has resulted in the conversion of agricultural land into oil palm plantations. The land conversion occurs because the results of oil palm plantations are considered more profitable than planting rice. This study aims to analyze and predict changes in land use for oil palm in Penajam Subdistrict in 2031. The method used in this study uses a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach with the CA-Markov prediction model. The drivers of land-use change as input to the CA-Markov model consist of distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from forest, height, and slope. The results of this research show that there is an increase in oil palm plantation areas in Penajam Subdistrict. Oil palm land changes occur in regions that have the right physical conditions and accessibility. The model shows that the increase in oil palm land area is in line with the rise in the productivity of oil palm land in the Penajam Subdistrict.

Keywords: celullar automata-Markov chain- land-use change- oil palm- Penajam Subdistrict- prediction

Topic: Environment, Health, and Safety