Prediction of Land Cover Changes in Penajam Paser Utara Regency Using Cellular Automata and Markov Model
Rosa Julia Permatasari (a), Astrid Damayanti (b*), Tito Latif Indra (b), Muhammad Dimyati (b)

a) Bachelor Program of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Depok City, Indonesia
b) Department of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Depok City, Indonesia.
*astrid.damayanti[at]sci.ui.ac.id

Abstract

Development and economic growth in an area can cause land cover changes. Penajam Paser Utara Regency, as a new capital candidate, is also predicted to experience changes in land cover. Land cover changes that are not following the potential of the land will cause environmental problems, so it is necessary to predict land cover changes by looking at patterns of land cover changes in the past and the factors that influence it. The purpose of this study is to analyze and predict the land cover change in Penajam Paser Utara Regency in 2031. The method used in this study is modeling using Cellular Automata - Markov for the prediction of land cover change. Besides, this study conducted an analysis using a multi-criteria analysis method as the driving factor of land cover change such as distance from the center of activity, distance from the road, distance from the river, height, and slope. There has been a change in land cover. It led to an increase in built-up land and a reduction in the forest area. Land cover changes occur in the regions that have good accessibility.

Keywords: Cellular Automata - Markov, land cover changes, Penajam Paser Utara, prediction

Topic: Environment, Health, and Safety