Will Indonesia Be Able to Reach High Income Levels through The Demographic Bonus? 1. Syahrituah Siregar, 2. Misdawati
Development Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Lambung Mangkurat University, Banjarmasin, Indonesia
Abstract
The projection of the age structure of the population shows that during 2020 - 2030 Indonesia will enjoy a Demographic Bonus. Many studies have shown the effect of demographics on economic growth. Even so, there is still little that can explain the level of Indonesia^s readiness to handle this demographic bonus period to become a high-income country. This study aims to predict the rate of economic growth that Indonesia can achieve during this demographic bonus period and the GNI value by 2030. The methods used in this study are regression analysis and path analysis by using structural equation model (SEM) approach. This study reveals the potential rate of Indonesian economic growth and the GNI level by 2030. By comparing with the standard level of high-income country we can determine whether Indonesia is included or trapped in middle-income level. This study shows the implication of how Human Resources management can determine the level of Economic Development.
Keywords: Demographic Bonus- Middle-income Country- economic growth- national income
